Health and Environment
Bulawayo – The Meteorological Services Department of Zimbabwe (MSD) has released its highly anticipated Seasonal Rainfall Forecast for the 2025–2026 season, predicting a delayed and erratic start before conditions are expected to improve significantly from December onward.
According to the forecast, the initial phase of the season, covering October to November 2025, is likely to be characterised by below-normal rainfall, particularly in the northern regions of the country. This has immediately raised concerns among farmers and water resource managers about a potentially challenging start to the agricultural season.
“The season is expected to begin with delayed and erratic rainfall,” confirmed Dr. James Ngoma, a senior climatologist at the MSD.
“This is a critical period for planting, and the predicted dry spells, especially in the north, require careful planning and adaptation from our farming communities.”
Temperatures during this initial period are also forecast to be warmer than average for October and November before cooling down in December.
The forecast, however, carries a message of hope for the latter part of the season. The MSD predicts a significant improvement in rainfall patterns starting in December 2025, with normal to above-normal rains expected across much of the country.
“We anticipate conditions to improve significantly from December,” Dr. Ngoma added.
“This will be a crucial window for farmers to take full advantage of the peak rainfall to ensure good crop establishment and growth.”
The outlook for the core rainy months of January to March 2026 shows a divided pattern. While the northern provinces may continue to experience below-normal rainfall, the central, southern, and western regions are forecast to receive normal to above-normal rainfall, which would greatly support agricultural prospects and water reservoir recharge in those areas.
Key Implications for the Nation
The MSD has urged stakeholders to heed the forecast. Farmers, in particular, are encouraged to adopt climate-smart agriculture practices.
“Given this outlook, we strongly advise farmers to consider planting drought-tolerant varieties in vulnerable areas, practice water conservation techniques, and follow official planting guidelines closely,” the MSD stated in its report.
The forecast implies that communities in northern Zimbabwe should prepare for potential water shortages and plan accordingly, while those in the south and west have better prospects for a productive agricultural season if the rains materialise as predicted.
The department has committed to providing regular updates throughout the season to guide the nation.
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