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Bulawayo – Political analyst Brighton Mutebuka has argued that a democratic transition in Zimbabwe will remain elusive unless the state’s powerful security apparatus realigns itself with the will of the people, a shift he describes as the central hurdle to change.
In a series of commentaries, Mutebuka stated that opposition leaders like Morgan Tsvangirai and Nelson Chamisa have already demonstrated the electorate’s readiness for change by proving the opposition “can win credible, free & fair elections.”
However, he contends that the primary obstacle is surmounting the “security cluster.”
“For that to happen, a tipping over / turnover point has to happen,” Mutebuka said.
“Unfortunately, the moral decay we are seeing in society also affects that cluster as well.”
He suggested that overcoming this barrier could occur through the “passage of time as the old guard folds away,” potential regional intervention, or through “sustained protests where large numbers of people have to be prepared to pay the ultimate price.”
The analyst also pointed to the entrenched interests of business elites like Kudakwashe Tagwirei as a compounding factor. He stated that Tagwirei was “allowed to spread his tentacles & entrench himself in all state institutions virtually unchallenged for a decade,” cultivating ties in sensitive sectors and “present[ing] a problem in future.”
A key part of the challenge, according to Mutebuka, is President Emmerson Mnangagwa’s distinct political style, which he describes as more pragmatic and relentless than his predecessor’s.
“Bob never went as far as capturing the opposition as shamelessly & brazenly as ED has done,” Mutebuka asserted.
“ED deploys everything. He is not an ideologue like Bob. Trinkets, personal charm, compromat, brute force – the end justifies the means!”
He highlighted Mnangagwa’s “enormous ‘War Chest’ which is growing exponentially every single day” as a critical tool of political control. Mutebuka warned that the struggling economy means “even some of the most principled in society will at some point become vulnerable enough to the point of succumbing to his entreaties.”
Labeling Mnangagwa an “exceptional character who many folks have underrated,” Mutebuka suggested that even internal party rivals may have “fallen into the same trap of underestimating what it would take to topple him, leading to the current malaise we are witnessing.”
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