Environmental Correspondent
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has indicated a high probability of a La Niña weather pattern emerging as early as September 2025, though scientists caution that global temperatures will continue to remain above average due to human-induced climate change.
According to the latest forecasts, there is a 55% chance of La Niña developing between September and November, increasing to 60% for the October to December period. The likelihood of an El Niño event is considered negligible. Neutral conditions—neither El Niño nor La Niña—have persisted in the Pacific since March.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo emphasized the importance of these predictions, stating,
“La Niña and El Niño forecasts are vital climate intelligence tools. They save lives and billions of dollars by helping countries prepare for impacts on agriculture, health, transport, and energy.”
La Niña typically leads to large-scale cooling of sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific, influencing global rainfall, wind, and pressure patterns. Its effects often contrast sharply with those of El Niño, particularly in tropical regions.
However, experts warn that these natural climate cycles are now unfolding against a backdrop of sustained global warming. The WMO’s latest Global Seasonal Climate Update predicts above-normal temperatures across most of the Northern Hemisphere and large parts of the Southern Hemisphere from September to November.
Rainfall patterns during this period are expected to align with those typically associated with a moderate La Niña. The WMO also notes that other climate drivers—such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, Arctic Oscillation, and Indian Ocean Dipole—will play significant roles in shaping global weather in the coming months.
Despite the potential cooling influence of La Niña, the overarching trend of rising temperatures and intensifying extreme weather events driven by human activities remains unchanged.
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