Business Reporter
Zimbabwe’s power supply outlook remains bleak in the short term, primarily due to critically low water levels at the Kariba Dam, which has dropped to below 3% of usable capacity.
This situation is compounded by the expectation that significant inflows will not occur until February/March 2025. The dam, which is crucial for hydropower generation, typically receives its peak inflows around May/June, making a quick recovery unlikely.
The Energy and Power Development Minister, Edgar Moyo, remains optimistic, asserting that improvements will come with the refurbishment of Hwange Power Station and reduced demand during the festive season.
However, the current peak demand for power is about 2,200 megawatts (MW), while the installed capacity is 2,700 MW. The deficit is largely due to:
- Low water levels at Kariba Dam
- Frequent breakdowns at Hwange Power Station, exacerbated by aging infrastructure and insufficient funding.
As of now, Hwange, which has a rated capacity of 1,520 MW, is producing only about 889 MW, significantly below its potential.
The Zambezi River Authority (ZRA) reported that as of November 11, 2024, the water level at Kariba Dam was at 2.40%, a stark decline from 10.72% the previous year.
This has led to Zimbabwe generating just 100 MW from Kariba, highlighting the severity of the situation. Neighboring Zambia has also halted production from the dam’s northern bank, resulting in power cuts lasting up to 21 hhour.
Despite forecasts of normal to above-normal rainfall for the region, concerns remain that the Kariba catchment may experience below-normal rainfall from October 2024 to January 2025, potentially impacting future inflows.
The ZRA has allocated 27 billion cubic meters of water for power generation in 2025, which may not be sufficient for optimal operation of the Kariba South facility.
Minister Moyo mentioned ongoing efforts to enhance power generation, including:
- Refurbishing old generators at Hwange
- Developing independent renewable energy projects
However, experts like former Zesa chief executive Joshua Chifamba caution that while solar energy projects are beneficial, they cannot replace the reliability of thermal power stations. He advocates for a tariff model based on the US dollar to help the state utility manage its financial challenges effectively.
Zimbabwe’s power crisis is a complex issue influenced by environmental, infrastructural, and economic factors. While short-term solutions are being pursued, significant improvements in power supply may not materialize until mid-2025, necessitating ongoing community and governmental efforts to address the challenges ahead.
Zim GBC News©2024